How to Prepare for the Unthinkable: Life & Business Lessons from the Israel-Hamas War

 The recent war between Israel and Hamas has been a shocking and tragic event that has claimed hundreds of lives and disrupted the fragile peace in Palestine. The war was triggered by a surprise attack by Hamas, which used unconventional tactics such as inflatables, gliders, boats, and tunnels to infiltrate Israel and launch thousands of rockets. Israel, which had invested heavily in its security and defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, walls, sensors, and buffer zones, was caught off guard and struggled to repel the invaders and protect its civilians.

The war has exposed the limitations of conventional thinking and planning in a complex and unpredictable world. It has also demonstrated the need for organizations, whether they are countries, businesses, or individuals, to prepare for the “impossible” and “unthinkable” scenarios that may challenge their assumptions, strategies, and capabilities.

In his book ‘The Age of the Unthinkable’, Joshua Cooper Ramoⁱ argues that we live in a new world disorder that constantly surprises us with unexpected events and outcomes. He draws on insights from history, economics, complexity theory, psychology, immunology, and network science to propose a new model for understanding and navigating this chaotic and uncertain landscape. He suggests that we need to embrace complexity, diversity, experimentation, resilience, and adaptation as the key principles for surviving and thriving in the age of the unthinkable.

Some of the lessons that we can learn from Ramo’s book and apply to the current war between Israel and Hamas are:

·    Complexity: The world is not a simple or linear system that can be controlled or predicted by applying fixed rules or formulas. It is a complex system that is made up of many interconnected and interdependent parts that interact in dynamic and nonlinear ways. Small changes or actions can have large and disproportionate effects, while large interventions can have unintended or counterproductive consequences. For example, Israel’s attempts to isolate and weaken Hamas by imposing a blockade on Gaza may have backfired by creating more resentment, desperation, and radicalization among the Palestinians. Hamas’s use of low-tech and low-cost weapons may have overwhelmed Israel’s sophisticated and expensive defense systems by exploiting their vulnerabilities or gaps.

· Diversity: The world is not a homogeneous or stable entity that can be understood or influenced by applying a single perspective or approach. It is a diverse system that is composed of many different actors, interests, values, cultures, beliefs, and behaviors that change over time and space. Diversity can be a source of strength or weakness, depending on how it is managed or leveraged. For example, Israel’s diversity as a multiethnic and multicultural society may have given it an advantage in terms of innovation, creativity, and tolerance. However, it may also have created divisions, tensions, and conflicts among its various groups that could undermine its unity and cohesion. Hamas’s diversity as a political and military organization may have given it an advantage in terms of flexibility, adaptability, and resilience. However, it may also have created contradictions, inconsistencies, and dilemmas among its various goals, strategies, and tactics.

·        Experimentation: The world is not a static or predictable environment that can be mastered or optimized by applying proven methods or best practices. It is a dynamic system that is constantly evolving and generating new challenges and opportunities that require novel solutions or responses. Experimentation can be a source of learning or innovation, depending on how it is conducted or evaluated. For example, Israel’s experimentation with new technologies or policies may have given it an edge in terms of efficiency, effectiveness, or security. However, it may also have exposed it to new risks or uncertainties that could compromise its performance or stability. Hamas’s experimentation with new tactics or alliances may have given it an edge in terms of surprise, unpredictability and the edge they have gained so far in the conflict.

·        Resilience: The world is not a safe or secure place that can be protected or defended by applying preventive measures or deterrents. It is a risky system that is constantly exposed to shocks and threats that can cause damage or disruption. Resilience can be a source of recovery or transformation, depending on how it is developed or deployed. For example, Israel’s resilience as a nation that has survived wars, terrorism, and isolation may have given it an advantage in terms of endurance, confidence, or solidarity. However, it may also have created complacency, arrogance, or rigidity that could prevent it from adapting to changing circumstances or resolving conflicts. Hamas’s resilience as a movement that has resisted occupation, oppression, and marginalization may have given it an advantage in terms of persistence, courage, or legitimacy. However, it may also have created desperation, violence, or extremism that could prevent it from achieving peace or development.

·        Adaptation: The world is not a fixed or stable system that can be maintained or improved by applying incremental changes or reforms. It is a changing system that is constantly creating new realities and possibilities that require radical shifts or transformations. Adaptation can be a source of growth or evolution, depending on how it is initiated or implemented. For example, Israel’s adaptation to the challenges and opportunities of the globalized and digitalized world may have given it an advantage in terms of prosperity, influence, or innovation. However, it may also have created challenges, pressures, or trade-offs that could affect its identity, values, or culture. Hamas’s adaptation to the constraints and opportunities of the regional and political context may have given it an advantage in terms of relevance, influence, or survival. However, it may also have created conflicts, contradictions, or compromises that could affect its vision, principles, or goals.

The war between Israel and Hamas has been a wake-up call for all of us who live and work in the age of the unthinkable. It has shown us that we cannot rely on our conventional wisdom or assumptions to deal with the complex and unpredictable challenges and opportunities that we face. We need to adopt a new mindset and skillset that enable us to embrace complexity, diversity, experimentation, resilience, and adaptation as the key principles for surviving and thriving in this new world disorder.

Are there lessons for businesses and organizations? You bet!

·        Be prepared for the unexpected: The war showed that even the most advanced and powerful organizations can be surprised and challenged by unforeseen events or actors that use unconventional or disruptive strategies. Businesses need to be aware of the potential threats and opportunities that may arise from the changing environment and be ready to respond quickly and effectively. They need to have contingency plans, backup systems, crisis management teams, and alternative scenarios that can help them cope with the unexpected.

·        Be flexible and adaptable: The war showed that even the most established and successful organizations can be outperformed and outsmarted by agile and innovative organizations that use creative and adaptive tactics. Businesses need to be flexible and adaptable to the changing needs and preferences of their customers, partners, competitors, and stakeholders. They need to embrace change, experiment with new ideas, learn from failures, and adjust their strategies and operations accordingly.

·        Be diverse and inclusive: The war showed that even the most homogeneous and cohesive organizations can be divided and conflicted by internal or external factors that create differences or tensions among their members. Businesses need to be diverse and inclusive in terms of their people, culture, values, and perspectives. They need to respect and appreciate the diversity of their employees, customers, partners, competitors, and stakeholders. They need to foster a culture of inclusion, collaboration, communication, and trust that can help them leverage the strengths and overcome the weaknesses of their diversity.

·        Be resilient and transformative: The war showed that even the most resilient and strong organizations can be damaged and disrupted by shocks and threats that can cause harm or loss. Businesses need to be resilient and transformative in terms of their resources, capabilities, performance, and impact. They need to have sufficient resources, capabilities, performance, and impact that can help them recover from shocks and threats. They need to use shocks and threats as opportunities for learning, improvement, innovation, and transformation.

As an organization, we need to establish a team of thinkers who can help us look at issues broadly and determine the impact on our organization and how to respond. The thinkers must have a broad mandate to speak truth to the head, whether it is palatable or not. They must not be constrained by orthodox thinking because the ‘unthinkable’ is already happening.

We need to think like a competitor who is not constrained by the limitation of the ‘impossible’ we impose on ourselves. We need to recall the saying that someone is shaping a bullet with our company’s name on it. That is the current situation.

We need to learn from the book ‘the age of the unthinkable’ by Joshua Cooper Ramo and apply its insights and recommendations to our business and personal life. We need to prepare for the ‘impossible’ and ‘unthinkable’ scenarios that may challenge our assumptions, strategies, and capabilities.

We need to do this before it is too late.

 

Postscript:

To manage the unthinkable in business, you need a combination of proactive strategies and effective crisis management. Here are some additional tips and strategies:

1.     Risk Assessment and Mitigation: Regularly assess potential risks and vulnerabilities in your business operations. Develop mitigation plans for these scenarios, even the unlikely ones.

2.     Crisis Management Team: Establish a dedicated crisis management team with clear roles and responsibilities. This team should be well-trained and prepared to respond swiftly to unforeseen events.

3.     Communication Plan: Develop a comprehensive communication plan that includes both internal and external stakeholders. Transparency and timely updates are crucial during a crisis.

4.     Scenario Planning: Create hypothetical scenarios and plan how your business would respond to each. This helps in preparing for the unthinkable by having strategies in place.

5.     Financial Resilience: Maintain a financial cushion or access to emergency funds to weather unexpected financial challenges.

6.     Customer and Employee Support: Prioritize the well-being of your customers and employees. Have contingency plans for employee safety and customer support during crises.

7.     Technology and Data Security: Ensure robust cybersecurity measures to protect sensitive data, as cyber threats are increasingly common unthinkable events.

8.     Flexibility and Adaptability: Cultivate a culture of adaptability within your organization. Being able to pivot and change course quickly can be essential.

9.     Learning from Others: Study case studies and best practices from other businesses that have faced and successfully managed unthinkable situations.

10. Legal and Compliance Preparedness: Be aware of legal and regulatory requirements that may come into play during crises, and ensure your business is compliant.

11. Continuous Improvement: Continuously review and refine your crisis management plans. Learn from each experience to improve your preparedness.

·  Forbes¹ suggests 14 top tips for dealing with business uncertainty, such as building in flexibility, being transparent, implementing and optimizing, embracing ambiguity, starting by changing yourself, practicing candid communication, developing worst-case scenarios, focusing on what has the highest payoff, and more.

·        Harvard Business Review²recommends six strategies for leading through uncertainty, such as exploring a range of options, including the unthinkable, challenging your assumptions and biases, seeking diverse perspectives and feedback, cultivating curiosity and learning agility, developing a growth mindset and self-compassion, and finding purpose and meaning in your work.

·        A third article from The Business Journals³advises how to do the unthinkable to achieve the impossible, such as raising the inspiration value of the project, increasing the collaboration among the team members, creating a culture of experimentation and iteration, leveraging the power of storytelling and visualization, and celebrating small wins and learning from failures.

References

Ramo J.C., 2009. The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What We Can Do About It. Little Brown & Co., New York.

1: Forbes. (2020). 14 Top Tips For Dealing With Business Uncertainty. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbescoachescouncil/2020/06/08/14-top-tips-for-dealing-with-business-uncertainty/

2 : Zucker R. & Rowell D. (2021). 6 Strategies for Leading Through Uncertainty. Retrieved from https://www.startingbusiness.com/blog/uncertainty-business (6 Ways You Can Manage Uncertainty in Business | SB (startingbusiness.com) , https://bing.com/search?q=tips+and+strategies+to+manage+the+unthinkable+in+business

3 : 13 Critical Steps To Building A Business Resilience Plan (forbes.com)